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2 edition of Speculative attacks and models of balance-of-payments crises found in the catalog.

Speculative attacks and models of balance-of-payments crises

International Monetary Fund.

Speculative attacks and models of balance-of-payments crises

by International Monetary Fund.

  • 209 Want to read
  • 39 Currently reading

Published by International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C .
Written in English


Edition Notes

Statementprepared by Pierre-Richard Agénor, Jagdeep S. Bhandari, and Robert P. Flood.
SeriesIMF working paper -- WP/91/99
ContributionsAgénor, Pierre-Richard., Bhandari, Jagdeep S., Flood, Robert P., International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The Physical Object
Pagination44 p. --
Number of Pages44
ID Numbers
Open LibraryOL19126398M

  EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW ELSEVIER European Economic Review 41 () Speculative attacks and macroeconomic fundamentals: evidence from some European currencies tnci Otker *, Ceyla Pazarbaoglu International Monetary Fund, 19th Street, N.W., Washington, DC , USA Abstract This paper evaluates the role of macroeconomic fundamentals in generating episodes of speculative . The series of crises initially started with speculative attacks on the Thai baht which, in July , forced the authorities to abandon the fixed exchange rate system versus the US dollar. The crisis soon spread to other countries of the region and seriously afflicted .

  In these models, speculative attacks are the response to the depletion of resources in fixed-price environments: A shrinking stock of natural resources at fixed prices in the Hotelling-Salant-Henderson model (see Obstfeld, ; Salant and Henderson, ) or declining reserves in fixed exchange rate systems (see Krugman, ) are typical.   A speculative attack on a currency occurs when 'investors' believe that the value of a currency is over-valued and therefore, they sell that currency in anticipation of it falling and buy another currency (e.g. sell their holdings of Pound Sterling and buy Euros). They make money by seeing the value of the currency they buy (e.g. Euros) increase.

"Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers , National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages , February. The book Currency Crises, this offering from the NBER will serve as a useful basis for further debate on the theory and practice of speculative attacks, as well as a valuable resource as new crises loom. Table of Contents. Balance-of-Payments Crises in Emerging Markets: Large Capital Inflows and Sovereign Governments.


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Speculative attacks and models of balance-of-payments crises by International Monetary Fund. Download PDF EPUB FB2

Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance-of-Payments Crises Pierre-Richard Agenor, Jagdeep S. Bhandari, Robert P. Flood. NBER Working Paper No. Issued in November NBER Program(s):International Trade and Investment, International Finance and Macroeconomics This paper reviews recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance-of-payments crises.

Get this from a library. Speculative attacks and models of balance-of-payments crises. [Pierre-Richard Agénor; Jagdeep S Bhandari; Robert P Flood; International Monetary Fund. Research Department.] -- This paper reviews recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance-of-payments crises.

A simple analytical model highlighting the process leading to such crises. Additional Physical Format: Online version: Agénor, Pierre-Richard.

Speculative attacks and models of balance-of-payments crises. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, []. Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises PIERRE-RICHARD AGENOR, JAGDEEP S. BHANDARI, and ROBERT P.

FLOOD* Recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance ofpayments crises are reviewed. A simple analytical model highlighting the process leading to such crises is first developed.

The basic framework is. Downloadable. Author(s): Pierre-Richard Agenor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P.

Flood. Abstract: This paper reviews recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance-of-payments crises. A simple analytical model highlighting the process leading to such crises is first developed.

The basic framework is then extended to deal with a variety Speculative attacks and models of balance-of-payments crises book issues, such as. Downloadable. This paper reviews recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance-of-payments crises.

A simple analytical model highlighting the process leading to such crises is first developed. The basic framework is then extended to deal with a variety of issues, such as: alternative post-collapse regimes, uncertainty, real sector effects, external borrowing and.

This paper reviews recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance-of-payments crises. A simple analytical model highlighting the process leading to such crises is first developed. The basic framework is then extended to deal with a variety of issues, such as: alternative post-collapse regimes, uncertainty, real sector effects, external borrowing and capital.

balance-of-payments crises. A speculative attack on a government's reserves can be viewed as a process by which investors change the composition of their portfolios, reducing the proportion of domestic currency and raising the proportion of foreign currency.

This change in composition is then justified by a change in relative yields. balance of payments crisis model related to Calvo (). The model includes both tradable and nontradable goods, which allows a natural specification of the CPI. Extensions to second generation speculative attacks are possible.

As discussed in Krugman (), these also require a commitment to intervene in the foreign exchange. In economics, a speculative attack is a precipitous selling of untrustworthy assets by previously inactive speculators and the corresponding acquisition of some valuable assets (currencies, gold, emission permits, commodities, remaining quotas).The first model of a speculative attack was contained in a discussion paper on the gold market by Stephen Salant and Dale Henderson at the Federal.

Get this from a library. Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance-of-Payments Crises. [Robert P Flood; Pierre-Richard Agenor; Jagdeep S Bhandari; National Bureau of Economic Research.;] -- This paper reviews recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance-of-payments crises.

A simple analytical model highlighting the process leading to such crises is first. “Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises,” IMF Staff Pap No.

2, – CrossRef Google Scholar Blackburn, K. and M. Sola. Balance-of-Payments Crises and Devaluation Maurice Obstfeld. NBER Working Paper No. (Also Reprint No. r) Issued in April NBER Program(s):International Trade and Investment, International Finance and Macroeconomics The collapse of a fixed exchange rate is typically marked by a sudden balance-of-payments crisis in which"speculators" fleeing from the domestic currency.

By using data from the Mexican economy, this paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in order to identify the role of macroeconomic fundamentals and early warning signals of.

A currency crisis is a situation in which serious doubt exists as to whether a country's central bank has sufficient foreign exchange reserves to maintain the country's fixed exchange crisis is often accompanied by a speculative attack in the foreign exchange market.

A currency crisis results from chronic balance of payments deficits, and thus is also called a balance of payments crisis.

1 A currency crisis usually refers to a situation in which speculative attacks force a sharp devaluation. A balance of payments crisis is a broader concept that involves a shortage of reserves to cover balance of payments needs.

This paper focuses on balance of payments crises as well as currency crises. Get this from a library.

Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises. [Robert P Flood; Pierre-Richard Agénor; Jagdeep S Bhandari; International Monetary Fund.] -- This paper reviews recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance-of-payments crises.

A simple analytical model highlighting the process leading to such crises is first. A financial crisis is any of a broad variety of situations in which some financial assets suddenly lose a large part of their nominal value.

In the 19th and early 20th centuries, many financial crises were associated with banking panics, and many recessions coincided with these panics. Other situations that are often called financial crises include stock market crashes and the bursting of. SPECULATIVE ATTACKS reserves dipped down to dangerously low levels.

It has been suggested that because Chinese residents cannot hold foreign currency, private speculative attacks cannot be the cause for China’s balance of payments crises. How-ever, this argument is not necessarily valid.

Since the early s, firms. Speculative Attacks: Fundamentals and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies Robert P. Flood, Nancy P. Marion. NBER Working Paper No. Issued in October NBER Program(s):International Finance and Macroeconomics We develop a modified understand better the Mexican peso crisis as well as aspects of the European currency crises in.

A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises INTRODUCTION A GOVERNMENT CAN PEG the exchange value of its currency in a variety of ways.

In a country with highly developed financial markets it can use balance-of-payments crises. A speculative attack on a government's reserves can be. Economics Letters 25 () 75 North-Holland SPECULATIVE ATTACKS ON THE CURRENCY WITH UNCERTAIN MONETARY POLICY REACTIONS Alpo WILLMAN Bank of Finland, SF/01 Helsinki, Finland Received 22 May Accepted 24 July We show that balance-of-payments crises are accompanied by discrete shifts in the exchange rate if in the pre-crisis situation .The basic model highlights a fundamental element driving the speculative attack: the anticipation of future government policies.

As a result of this anticipation, the balance-of-payments crisis may occur even when the level of reserves appears sufficiently large to handle normal balance of payments .